A P&L on recognized revenue, not exit ARR — because the year you reach $100M ARR is not a $100M revenue year. Burn, buffer, and the trough are shown, not asserted.
| $M UNLESS NOTED | Y1 · FY27 | Y2 · FY28 | Y3 · FY29 | Y4 · FY30 | Y5 · FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit ARR (run-rate) | 2.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | 48.0 | 100.0 |
| Recognized revenue | 1.0 | 5.0 | 15.0 | 35.0 | 74.0 |
| Gross margin % | 45% | 52% | 56% | 62% | 65% |
| Gross profit | 0.5 | 2.6 | 8.4 | 21.7 | 48.1 |
| People (fully loaded) | 1.7 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 17.6 | 30.0 |
| Programs (cloud · mktg · other) | 0.8 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 12.0 |
| Total opex | 2.5 | 5.3 | 12.0 | 24.5 | 42.0 |
| EBITDA | −2.1 | −2.7 | −3.6 | −2.8 | +6.1 |
| Cumulative EBITDA | −2.1 | −4.8 | −8.4 | −11.2 | −5.1 |
| Headcount (EOY) | 10 | 22 | 45 | 90 | 150 |
Recognized revenue ≈ the average of entry and exit ARR (near-linear intra-year ramp). Cost of revenue = model inference, payment & fintech funding costs, and direct sourcing/QC program costs; gross margin ramps with auto-approval (40% → 90%). All salaried headcount sits in opex.
Raised now. Funds Phases 0–5 and the first 20 anchor buyers.
Cumulative EBITDA through Y2 on recognized revenue — the honest number, not the ARR-flattered one.
~3 months of Y2 opex. Tight by design — hiring gates and program spend are the levers if G1 slips.
| Y3 LAUNCH | Y5 SCALE | |
|---|---|---|
| Financed share of GMV | ~40% | ~60% |
| Avg receivables outstanding (45-day terms) | ~$22M | ~$148M |
| Funding structure | Warehouse facility with capital partner | Facility + forward-flow at scale |
| Our first-loss reserve (5–10%) | ~$2M (from Series A) | $10–15M (B + facility) |
The $18M Y5 fintech revenue line is fee income on financed volume — the receivables themselves are funded off-balance-sheet, with our exposure capped at the first-loss reserve.
One flow, mirroring the pricing spine: the buyer pays Gigabite the DDP total; Gigabite disburses factory, freight, and duty at cost; the take and fees remain. Merchant of record on payments, never an inventory owner — goods move factory → cross-dock → buyer with title flashing through at delivery, so no stock ever lands on our balance sheet.
The DDP total from the receipt. Deposit + balance in Y1–Y2; net terms from Y3.
Hash-chained payment event; credit exposure updates in the same transaction.
Milestones: 30% at PO, 70% at BOL — mirrored by the buyer deposit, so float stays near zero pre-fintech.
Forwarder and customs disbursements, evidence-linked line by line.
Actuals reconciled against the estimate; savings rebated to the buyer.
$3.25 of the $53.25 case — financing, performance guarantee, service fee. That is the revenue line.
The A is planned, not optional: the Y3–Y4 investment trough takes cumulative burn to ~$11.2M, against $24M of seed + A — ~2.1x coverage of the trough.
To G1–G2. Proves trust and leverage on real cohorts; reaches G2 with a ~$1.2M buffer on plan.
RAISINGCovers the Y3–Y4 growth trough with ~2.1x coverage; funds fintech first-loss capital and GTM scale-out.
SCENARIONational scale, forward-flow credit capacity, category breadth.
SCENARIO| SENSITIVITY | Y5 ARR | EBITDA BREAKEVEN | ACTION TRIGGERED |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base plan | $100M | Y5 in-year · Y4 run-rate | — |
| Bear · GMV at 60% of plan | ~$62M | Beyond Y5 | Hiring holds at gates; programs cut 25%; peak burn stays under seed + A |
| Bull · fintech attach 75% | ~$112M | Y4 in-year | First-loss reserve raised earlier; B pulled forward |