Same five years as the plan, read forwards: who we sell to, what we sell them, how the revenue mix layers on, and the gates between stages. Figures are planning targets, not forecasts.
Take rate compresses by design — 4.4% on early anchor accounts down to 3.5% blended at scale — while fintech and software lines grow into the gap. Fiscal years run Jul–Jun; FY2027 = Jul 2026 – Jun 2027. ARR and GMV are fiscal-year exit run-rates; the financial plan reconciles them to recognized revenue. New buyers ramp to steady state in ~2 quarters; churn and NRR are planned in the sales capacity model, not discovered later.
| Y1 · FY27 | Y2 · FY28 | Y3 · FY29 | Y4 · FY30 | Y5 · FY31 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit ARR | $2M | $8M | $22M | $48M | $100M |
| GMV | $45M | $170M | $450M | $1.0B | $2.0B |
| Active buyers | 20 | 70 | 200 | 500 | 1,000+ |
| Product families | 8 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 40 |
| Blended take rate | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| Avg GMV / buyer | $2.3M | $2.4M | $2.3M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
| Logo retention · NRR | — | 90% · 105% | 91% · 112% | 92% · 115% | 95% · 118% |
| Facts auto-approved | 40% | 60% | 75% | 85% | 90% |
| GMV per ops FTE | $15M | $28M | $38M | $42M | $50M |
| Revenue lines live | 1 | 1–2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Transaction revenue funds the wedge. Embedded finance arrives in Y3 once the payment ledger can underwrite; software & data scales as buyers run their own queues on our seats.
The average buyer runs ~$2.3M of GMV through the ledger per year. At Y3 pricing that's a ~$110K annual revenue account — and the payback claim is a target the G3 gate must prove on two consecutive cohorts, not an assumption.
$87K transaction (3.8% × $2.3M) + ~$23K fintech & software attach.
~60% contribution margin after supply-chain ops, review labor, and model costs.
Playbook-led sale anchored on a savings report from the buyer's own uploaded data.
$5.5K contribution per month; 4-year LTV with category expansion >$300K → LTV:CAC > 8x.
Every figure above is a planning target. The G2 and G3 gates exist precisely to verify contribution margin and payback on real cohorts before scale capital is spent.
flowchart TB Y1["Y1 · Prove
$2M ARR"] -->|"G1 · Trust gate"| Y2["Y2 · Platform
$8M ARR"] Y2 -->|"G2 · Leverage gate"| Y3["Y3 · Repeat
$22M ARR"] Y3 -->|"G3 · Repeatability gate"| Y4["Y4 · Scale
$48M ARR"] Y4 -->|"G4 · Scale gate"| Y5["Y5 · Compound
$100M ARR"]
20 buyers with repeat orders, quote-dispute rate near zero, evidence chain holds in every audit. If buyers don't trust the ledger, nothing else matters.
GMV per ops FTE up ~1.9x, 60% auto-approval, buyers running their own review queues. Proves the platform scales sub-linearly with people.
CAC payback under 6 months across two consecutive cohorts, expansion > new-logo, fintech losses within model. The playbook works without founders in every deal.
Fill rate and OTIF hold at $1B GMV, new categories land in under 30 days, credit book performing at portfolio scale.
Funds Phases 0–5 and the first 20 buyers through the trust gate, reaching G2 with a ~$1.2M buffer on plan. Hiring gates protect the floor.
RAISINGRaised on leverage proof: $8M exit ARR, $170M GMV run-rate. Covers the Y3–Y4 growth trough (peak cumulative burn ~$11M) with ~2x coverage.
SCENARIORaised on repeatability: $22M ARR and a performing credit book. Funds national scale and the category machine.
SCENARIO